The Hedge Didn’t Work.

Did I say take MSU on the moneyline? 

Did I say they would shock the world?

Did I say the hedge was the only play for my friend to make?

Did I really?  Hmm.  Let’s pretend I didn’t.  Let’s pretend I told all you guys who are into internet gambling to take North Carolina to cover the 7.5 and crush the Spartans because that’s what happened.  I like to be right, so let’s just go with that? 

No?  It’s not going to be our little secret?  Oh.  Okay, I got some egg on my face.  I got too caught up in rooting for Cinderfella as the Spartans were that night and didn’t recognize the disparity in talent, experience, and the sheer will to win the Tar Heels embodied.  Did I really say the emotional power of the city of Detroit, the entire car-building state of Michigan would power the Spartans to a championship? 

Man, I really whiffed.  This is like sitting on the river putting your opponent on a stone cold bluff throughout the hand and betting into him.  Then he casually slides the rest of his chips to the middle.  You really going to call him down with third pair?   Problem is you’ve already commited so many chips to the pot.

The underdog has won.  The favorite has lost.  It’s a strange game poker.  You chase with the losing hand and get lucky on the river you’re the only one feeling good about your play.  The other people just watching the game think you are schmuck, a lucky schmuck, and so too does the house.

In sports gambling, you pick an underdog, a 7.5 point underdog, and you think they are not only going to cover but win, you’ll need blind luck for that pick to hit.  Course most times it doesn’t.   And when it doesn’t you go back to your blog and write a post like this.

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